Two Report Cards, Two Stories: Why Graduation Rates Are Up While Skills Are Down

Listen to Lee’s discussion on the air:

TL;DR

Read time: 6–7 minutes

Parent: “Why does it seem like school was harder back in my day?”

Me: “Well, in part, because some of it was…”

Graduation rates are rising, but reading and math proficiency are falling.
This post explains why those trends can happen at the same time, what changed after the pandemic, and what it means for families, colleges, and the workforce.

Two Report Cards, Telling Two Different Stories

Talk to almost any parent and you will hear the same thing: “School feels easier now than it was when we were kids.”

At the same time, schools are graduating more students than ever.Both things can be true.

That is because education today is judged by two very different report cards:

1. The skills report card, measured by reading and math proficiency
2. The credential report card, measured by graduation rates

Right now, those report cards tell very different stories.

Report Card #1: The Skills Story

Proficiency Has Slipped Since 2019

Virginia’s 2024 NAEP results show a mixed pattern:

• Fourth grade math is slightly up
• Fourth grade reading is flat
• Eighth grade reading and math are down

The Virginia Department of Education directly links these results to extended pandemic disruptions, including school closures and remote learning.

State assessment data tells a similar story.

According to Virginia proficiency trends compiled by Zelma and summarized by Brookings:

• ELA proficiency fell from 76.0% in 2019 to 70.3% in 2023
• Math proficiency dropped from 79.9% in 2019 to 64.7% in 2023

There has been some recovery since the lowest point of the pandemic.
However, students overall are less likely to meet grade-level expectations today than they were before 2020.

Report Card #2: The Credential Story

Graduation Rates Keep Climbing

Now look at graduation rates.

According to the National Center for Education Statistics:

• The U.S. Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate reached 87% in 2021–22
• Up from 80% in 2011–12

This increase continued even through pandemic disruption. So the tension becomes clear:

More students are earning diplomas on time, while fewer students are demonstrating strong reading and math skills.

How Can Graduation Rates Rise While Skills Fall?

This is not about schools failing or teachers caring less. It is about incentives, policies, and definitions of success that do not always align.

1. Graduation Is Easier to Adjust Than Learning

Learning, especially in reading and math, builds year after year. You cannot quickly make up missed foundations at scale. Graduation rates, however, can change faster because districts can adjust policies such as: 

• Credit recovery options
• Course substitutions
• Flexible grading practices
• Alternative pathways to earn credits

These changes can keep students moving toward diplomas, but they do not automatically rebuild academic skills.

2. Accountability Systems Often Prioritize Completion

The Fordham Institute argues that when policymakers emphasize graduation and completion metrics, schools respond logically. They raise completion by adjusting the requirements to earn credits rather than by ensuring mastery. From a system perspective, changing the standard to receive a diploma is often easier than changing instructional outcomes.

3. Pandemic-Era Flexibility Did Not Fully Reset

Many pandemic policies were created with good intentions. They were designed to keep students connected and prevent massive failure.

Examples include:

• Fewer zeroes
• More retakes
• Lenient deadlines
• Expanded online credit recovery
• Reduced seat-time requirements

Even as schools reopened, many of these policies remained. They helped protect graduation rates but did not necessarily rebuild lost learning.

4. Proficiency and Graduation Measure Different Things

This distinction is critical.

• Proficiency measures whether a student meets grade-level standards at a point in time
• Graduation measures persistence, credit accumulation, and meeting requirements over several years

They are related, but they are not the same.

Why School Feels Harder “Back in Our Parents’ Day”

Parents are not just being nostalgic. School often was harder in important ways. The difference is not always about tougher content.  It is about stricter systems and fewer escape routes.

Here is what many parents experienced that students today experience less often:

• Grading felt final
  • More zeroes
  • Fewer retakes
  • Less minimum grading
• Deadlines mattered more
  • Late work often meant lost credit
• Fewer alternative paths
  • Less online coursework
  • Fewer credit recovery options
• More consistent expectations
  • Rules were similar across classrooms and schools

Today, expectations can vary widely from class to class. That variability makes rigor feel uneven and confusing. At the same time, learning feels harder for students in new ways.

Phones, notifications, chronic absenteeism, and lower attention stamina make sustained focus more difficult. Virginia’s recent push for cell phone free schools reflects growing recognition that attention is now a major learning variable.

So when parents say school used to be harder, they are often describing more friction, more accountability, and fewer off-ramps, not necessarily more advanced material.

What This Means for Families and the Workforce

When diplomas increase but skills lag, the consequences show up later:

• More students placed into college remediation
• Fewer students earning credit-bearing college coursework immediately
• Employers reporting gaps in reading, math, and problem-solving
• Students feeling unprepared despite graduating on time

The diploma still matters. But it no longer guarantees readiness.

What Actually Helps Rebuild Skills

Raising graduation rates and rebuilding mastery do not have to conflict.

But it requires intentional choices:

• Early and targeted literacy and math intervention
• Clear and consistent grading policies
• Attendance and attention policies that are enforced
• High-dosage tutoring
• Honest reporting of both graduation and proficiency data

The goal is not fewer diplomas. The goal is diplomas that truly represent readiness.

Final Thought

We did not lower expectations because people stopped caring. We changed the rules to help students through a crisis and many of those rules never fully reset. Now education faces a harder challenge: 

How do we support students while also restoring mastery?

That answer matters for families, colleges, and the future workforce.

References

• 2024 NAEP Results Validate SOL Scores: https://www.doe.virginia.gov/Home/Components/News/News/451/227
• Math Proficiency Rate Over Time in Virginia: https://www.zelma.ai/q/HHmvwnMrwp
• High School Graduation Rates: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/coi/high-school-graduation-rates
• Is dumbing-down why graduation rates are up? In both high school and college?: https://fordhaminstitute.org/national/commentary/dumbing-down-why-graduation-rates-are-both-high-school-and-college