College Admissions by the Numbers: Is a Degree Still Worth It?

By Lee Elberson, CEO, Clayborne Education

Last week I joined WINA’s Cville Right Now to talk about college admissions by the numbers. I’m a physicist by training, so this is my favorite kind of segment. Headlines tell you how to feel. Numbers tell you what’s actually happening.

Right now, the two are telling different stories.

The headlines say college is harder to get into than ever, a degree isn’t worth it anymore, and AI is eating entry-level jobs. The numbers say something more nuanced, and for families, a lot more useful:

The degree still pays. The on-ramp just got harder.

Here’s what that means for your family.

Record applications, but not record students

Common App logged a record 10.8 million first-year applications in 2025-26, up 6% and the most in its 50-year history. That sounds like a stampede.

It isn’t. Those applications came from about 1.53 million students. The average student now applies to about seven schools.

The volume is anxiety, not demand. Students are hedging their bets. The most selective schools feel the crush. Most colleges don’t.

Two more numbers from the report are worth knowing. International applicants fell 10%, tied to visa uncertainty. And testing is back: about 52% of applicants submitted scores by March 1, the first majority since before the pandemic. (If you’ve been following our coverage, test-optional was never the end of testing.)

Who is showing up, and who is quietly opting out

You’ve probably heard about the “demographic cliff.” High school graduating classes peaked in 2025 and are projected to shrink about 13% through 2041.

For most families, that’s good news. Fewer students means many colleges will compete harder for your kid, often with merit aid. The squeeze stays concentrated at the top 50 or so schools.

Meanwhile, the share of graduates going straight to college still hasn’t recovered. In fall 2024, 62.8% of new high school grads enrolled, compared with 66.2% in 2019.

The bigger story is who is missing.

If you’re raising a son, this is worth your attention. The challenge isn’t only getting him in. It’s getting him through.

There’s real good news here too. The growth in applications is coming from first-generation students (up 9%) and from students in below-median-income ZIP codes (up 8%). College is opening up to families it hasn’t always reached.

Does a degree still pay? Yes.

With all the “is college worth it” talk, here’s what the money actually says. According to the College Board’s Education Pays 2026 report, the median bachelor’s degree holder earned $81,800 in 2024, compared with $50,600 for high school graduates. That’s a 62% premium.

The payoff doesn’t take decades to show up. By ages 25 to 29, bachelor’s holders are already earning $61,200 versus $38,800. Degree holders are also more likely to be working at all: 84.1% of 25- to 64-year-olds with a bachelor’s are employed, versus 70.3% of high school grads.

Completion is the whole ballgame.

So why are new grads struggling?

This is the part of the story that’s genuinely changed. According to the New York Fed, recent college grads (ages 22 to 27) had a 5.6% unemployment rate in March 2026, versus 7.2% for non-grads the same age. The degree still helps.

But the edge is thinner than it used to be. About 41.5% of recent grads are underemployed, working jobs that don’t require a degree. And since about 2021, recent grads have had higher unemployment than the workforce overall, reversing a pattern that held for decades.

Is AI to blame?

Maybe partly. Recent grads certainly think so. But economists disagree. One study found that the firms making the largest AI investments actually grew entry-level headcount by 12%. Remote work, which makes it harder to train junior employees, may matter just as much.

What happens if the economy softens?

Historically, more students go to college, not fewer. Enrollment is countercyclical. Community colleges’ share of new enrollees peaked at 43.4% in 2012, right after the Great Recession. A soft entry-level job market could push that trend again.

Do Americans still believe in college?

It depends on the poll. An NBC News poll in late 2025 found only 33% of Americans say a four-year degree is worth it, down from 53% in 2013. A July 2026 Credible survey found a near split, 52/48. Read closely, the doubt isn’t really about the payoff. It’s about cost and debt.

And the cost side just changed. As of July 1, 2026, Parent PLUS loans are capped at $20,000 per year and $65,000 total per student. Families need a real plan. (We broke down what the new federal loan limits mean in an earlier post.)

One thing to do if you’re the parent of a sophomore

Build the college list around fit and finishing, not prestige. Concretely:

• Look up four-year graduation rates. A school where most students finish on time is worth more than a bigger name where many don’t.
• Ask about the on-ramp. Internships, co-ops, and career support are what get graduates through those first two years.
• Run the net price calculator at every school on the list, and plan for the new borrowing caps.
• Use test scores to unlock merit aid. With fewer students and tighter loans, a strong SAT or ACT score is often the cheapest money a family will ever earn.

Here’s how I closed the segment, and it’s how I’ll close this post:

The lifetime math hasn’t changed: a degree pays. What’s changed is the first two years after graduation and how you pay for it. Pick a school with a plan for that on-ramp, keep the debt manageable, and above all, finish.

Sources

• Common App, End of Season Report 2025-26
• College Board, Education Pays 2026
• Pew Research Center, Fewer young men are in college, especially at 4-year schools
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
• NPR, Many recent grads say AI is making it harder to get a job. Economists aren’t so sure
• GovTech, Common App Annual Report Shows Increase in College Applications